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Why Clutch leans Warriors
Injury report: GSW without Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis +1. Toward the Heat: 37% of the call.
Rest: GSW 2 days off, MIA on a back-to-back. Toward the Warriors: 21% of the call.
Roster moves: MIA added Giannis Antetokounmpo; GSW added Yaxel Lendeborg; MIA lost Jaime Jaquez Jr. Toward the Warriors: 17% of the call.
Pro weighs every factor, shows the projected final, and Model only — Clutch's own number before the market. See Pro →
What Clutch couldn't see
- No line from the market yet, so Clutch's call is Model only — no market to anchor it or to compare against.
- Early season: each team's rating still leans on last season, adjusted for who arrived and who left (it takes about ten games for this season's results to carry most of the weight).
Who's out
| Team | Player | Status | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSW | Jimmy Butler | out | 30 MPG |
| GSW | Kristaps Porzingis | out | 26 MPG |
| GSW | Moses Moody | out | 31 MPG |
| GSW | Gui Santos | out | 23 MPG |
| MIA | Nobody listed |
From the league's official injury report (ESPN's list when the report isn't out). If a status changes before tip, this page and the number update.
Coming in
| Before Nov 5, 2026 | MIA | GSW |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| At home | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| On the road | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 5 |
| Points scored | 118.0 | 117.5 |
| Points allowed | 122.9 | 114.6 |
| Average margin | −4.9 pts | +2.9 pts |
| Margin rank | 21st of 30 | 12th of 30 |
| Rest | Back-to-back | 2 days |
| Clutch on their games | 3–4 | 4–4 |
| Playoff chance | 44% | 70% |
| 2025-26 record | 43–39 | 37–45 |
They last met on Jan 19, 2026: Warriors 135, Heat 112 in San Francisco.
After the final, this page grades itself: the score, whether Clutch was right, and the receipt.