THE CALLTIP 9:30 PM ET
OKCTHUNDER · AWAY70%
DALMAVERICKS · HOME30
CLUTCH OKC 70 · MARKET 64
Why Clutch leans Thunder
Season-long strength: OKC rated well above DAL. Toward the Thunder: 36% of the call.
Season margin: DAL -3.3, OKC +7.6 pts a game (blended with last season early on). Toward the Thunder: 33% of the call.
Home court (DAL). Toward the Mavericks: 11% of the call.
Pro weighs every factor, shows the projected final, and Model only — Clutch's own number before the market. See Pro →
What Clutch couldn't see
- Early season: each team's rating still leans on last season, adjusted for who arrived and who left (it takes about ten games for this season's results to carry most of the weight).
Who's out
| TEAM | PLAYER | STATUS | MINUTES |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | Chet Holmgren | out | 30 MPG |
| OKC | Jalen Williams | out | 26 MPG |
| DAL | Santi Aldama | doubtful | 28 MPG |
| OKC | Alex Caruso | out | 23 MPG |
| DAL | Kyrie Irving | questionable | 32 MPG |
| OKC | Cason Wallace | out | 24 MPG |
| DAL | Dereck Lively | out | 17 MPG |
| DAL | Naji Marshall | questionable | 29 MPG |
| OKC | Ajay Mitchell | questionable | 27 MPG |
| DAL | Sergio De Larrea | out | 12 MPG |
From the league's official injury report (ESPN's list when the report isn't out). If a status changes before tip, this page and the number update.
This page grades itself
After the final you'll see the score, whether Clutch was right, and the receipt that proves the call came first.