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Why Clutch leans Heat
Injury report: IND without Tj Mcconnell, Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy +2. Toward the Heat: 40% of the call.
Roster moves: MIA added Giannis Antetokounmpo; IND added Tyrese Haliburton; MIA lost Jaime Jaquez Jr. Toward the Pacers: 21% of the call.
Season-long strength: MIA rated well above IND. Toward the Heat: 17% of the call.
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What Clutch couldn't see
- Early season: each team's rating still leans on last season, adjusted for who arrived and who left (it takes about ten games for this season's results to carry most of the weight).
Who's out
| Team | Player | Status | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Tyrese Haliburton | out | 30 MPG |
| IND | Ivica Zubac | out | 25 MPG |
| IND | Tj Mcconnell | out | 19 MPG |
| IND | Ben Sheppard | out | 19 MPG |
| IND | Johnny Furphy | out | 21 MPG |
| IND | Andrew Nembhard | probable | 33 MPG |
| IND | Aaron Nesmith | probable | 26 MPG |
| MIA | Nobody listed |
From the league's official injury report (ESPN's list when the report isn't out). If a status changes before tip, this page and the number update.
Coming in
| Before Oct 30, 2026 | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| At home | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| On the road | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points scored | 115.0 | 113.0 |
| Points allowed | 114.8 | 120.8 |
| Average margin | +0.2 pts | −7.8 pts |
| Margin rank | 15th of 30 | 23rd of 30 |
| Rest | 1 day | 1 day |
| Clutch on their games | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Playoff chance | 29% | 34% |
| 2025-26 record | 19–63 | 43–39 |
They last met on Mar 29, 2026: Pacers 135, Heat 118 in Indianapolis.
After the final, this page grades itself: the score, whether Clutch was right, and the receipt.