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Why Clutch leans Cavaliers
Injury report: CLE without Jaylon Tyson, Naeqwan Tomlin; OKC without Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso +1. Toward the Cavaliers: 34% of the call.
Home court (CLE). Toward the Cavaliers: 23% of the call.
Season-long strength: OKC rated above CLE. Toward the Thunder: 20% of the call.
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What Clutch couldn't see
- Early season: each team's rating still leans on last season, adjusted for who arrived and who left (it takes about ten games for this season's results to carry most of the weight).
Who's out
| Team | Player | Status | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | Chet Holmgren | out | 30 MPG |
| OKC | Jalen Williams | out | 26 MPG |
| OKC | Alex Caruso | out | 23 MPG |
| CLE | Jaylon Tyson | out | 15 MPG |
| OKC | Cason Wallace | out | 24 MPG |
| CLE | Naeqwan Tomlin | out | 11 MPG |
| CLE | Peyton Watson | questionable | 25 MPG |
From the league's official injury report (ESPN's list when the report isn't out). If a status changes before tip, this page and the number update.
Coming in
| Before Nov 2, 2026 | OKC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| At home | 3–0 | 3–0 |
| On the road | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points scored | 106.5 | 121.0 |
| Points allowed | 107.0 | 116.0 |
| Average margin | −0.5 pts | +5.0 pts |
| Margin rank | 17th of 30 | 10th of 30 |
| Rest | 1 day | 1 day |
| Clutch on their games | 5–1 | 6–0 |
| Playoff chance | 84% | 88% |
| 2025-26 record | 64–18 | 52–30 |
They last met on Feb 22, 2026: Thunder 121, Cavaliers 113 in Oklahoma City.
After the final, this page grades itself: the score, whether Clutch was right, and the receipt.